Mutual Fund Market Timing for better returns

Are you one of those investors who are not happy with returns that you get from your mutual fund. A you looking to maximize your returns in the mutual fund market by trying to time investment? If so, then this article may be of some use to you. Timing your investments correctly can lead to higher returns and increased profitability. But is that really possible? how exactly do you navigate the unpredictable nature of the market? In this article, we will explore strategies that can give you some pointers and help you make decision regarding Mutual Fund Market Timing.

Timing the market requires careful research, analysis, and a well-thought-out strategy. We will delve into various tactics, such as identifying market trends, understanding economic indicators, and using technical analysis tools. By staying informed and monitoring market conditions, you can make informed decisions and seize opportunities for higher profits

In addition, we will discuss the potential risks associated with market timing and how to mitigate them. While successful timing can lead to significant gains, mistimed investments can result in losses. Therefore, it’s crucial to understand the risks involved and develop a risk management plan.

Asset Allocation Strategies

There are two common asset allocation strategies for managing your investment.

First one is Strategic Asset Allocation and second one is Tactical Asset Allocation. In general, each investor will decide asset allocation of his investments based on risk profile, age, stability in income, dependents etc. Based on these factors investor may settle at asset allocation like say 60:30:10 in say Equity, Debt and Gold. Investor will decide on some threshold like say 5%. If any asset allocation changes beyond 5%, he or she will rebalance portfolio back to pre-decided allocation. So if Equity rises and goes above 65% of portfolio value, investor will sell equity and invest in debt and gold to bring back Equity allocation back to 60%.

Second one is Tactical Asset Allocation. In this case, investor tries to take some advantage of market situation, trends and try to benefit from same. Tactical asset allocation should not be primary strategy but should act as supliment to Strategic asset allocation. One way to achieve this is allocate say 90 to 95% of assets as per strategic asset allocation and remaining 5 to 10% is used as per understanding of market.

Mutual Fund Market Timing and Tactical Asset Allocation

Market timing is one of the criteria of Tactical Asset Allocation. So investors should consider them only for a small portion of their overall portfolio. Major allocation should follow strategic asset allocation strategy only.

Taking above example, 5 to 10 percent of overall portfolio, investor can use for timing the market and try and get some additional returns.

Self vs Delegated Mutual Fund Market Timing

There are two ways to achieve market timing. If investor has good understanding of market, interest rate, technical charts and other factors like inflation, he or she himself can try to time the market.

If investor does not have time or knowledge to do so, he or she can delegate this to some expert in the field. From mutual fund perspective, this can be done with help from SEBI registered Investment Advisor or there are some funds like Edelweiss Balanced Advantage Fund which work on momentum strategy and decide on allocation.

Understanding Mutual Fund Market Timing

Mutual Fund Market Timing has multiple aspects.

• When to invest in particular asset like Equity
• Which sub category to invest in like Large cap, Mid cap or Small cap
• When to book profit if strategy worked
• Stop loss – when to exit from strategy if it backfires

As you can see doing Market timing is not simple and investor will need lot of time, effort and analysis in order to achieve it successfully for long period.

Conclusion

After spending more than 2 decades in the field of investing, here are my two cents.

95% of investors should be well off sticking to Strategy Asset Allocation and not to try market timing.

Rest all of them should take help from experts in this field like SEBI registered investment advisor for doing some tactical changes based on market situation. They should be making sure only small portion of their asset is used for market timing. We have seen hardly any time Balanced Advantage Funds have beaten Hybrid Equity Funds over long period. So market timing is extremely difficult task even for seasoned experts. Retails investors should be better off without timing.